The international energy market experienced renewed volatility under the cover of night. Affected by escalating tensions in multiple regions, crude oil prices rose significantly on the night of January 9th. The main crude oil futures contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed at 432.7 yuan/barrel, a sharp increase of 16.5 yuan from the previous trading day, representing a 3.99% gain. The intraday high reached 433.9 yuan/barrel, setting a new recent high. Behind this overnight surge lies a complex interplay of geopolitical risk premiums and the global supply and demand landscape, planting further uncertainty in the energy market at the beginning of 2026.

The core driving force behind this surge in crude oil prices stems from multiple outbreaks of geopolitical tension. On one hand, critical facilities of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), which connects Kazakh oil fields to the Russian Black Sea coast, were attacked and damaged. This pipeline handles most of Kazakhstan's crude oil exports, transporting approximately 1.6 million barrels per day. The severe damage to the mooring facilities prevented normal operation, directly raising concerns about the security of energy transportation routes. On the other hand, the situation between the United States and Venezuela continues to escalate. US President Trump previously warned of closing Venezuelan airspace, and US military actions have led to the risk of disruptions to the country's crude oil production. As the country with the world's largest proven oil reserves, fluctuations in Venezuela's supply quickly triggered market panic. The叠加 of multiple geopolitical conflicts injected a risk premium into the crude oil market, which was already grappling with supply and demand dynamics, driving prices sharply upward in the short term.

It is worth noting that this overnight surge occurred against the backdrop of a global crude oil market facing supply and demand imbalances. The market generally expects a significant oversupply of global crude oil in the first quarter of 2026, with the International Energy Agency predicting a surplus of potentially 3.8 million barrels per day.  ​​Previously, short positions held by trend-following commodity trading advisors reached as high as 90%. However, OPEC+ insisted on implementing its plan to suspend production increases in the first quarter, with a daily production cut of 2.2 million barrels providing a floor for oil prices.  The peak heating demand season in the Northern Hemisphere and the increased demand from industrial recovery in emerging Asian markets further intensified the market's bullish and bearish dynamics. Fueled by geopolitical risks, short-term supply concerns temporarily outweighed expectations of oversupply, becoming the direct trigger for this price surge.

For the domestic market, the significant fluctuations in crude oil prices are having a ripple effect through the industrial chain. Although the first round of domestic refined oil price adjustments in 2026 was suspended due to an increase of less than 50 yuan/ton, the probability of an upward adjustment in the next round (January 20th, 24:00) has significantly increased as international oil prices continue to fluctuate upwards. Car owners' travel costs, logistics companies' transportation expenses, and the raw material costs of the chemical industry will all be potentially affected. Some refineries that rely on heavy crude oil as a raw material also face the dual pressure of raw material supply stability and rising costs. In the capital market, oil-related sectors have shown a联动 reaction, with companies in the supply chain closely related to energy security attracting investor attention, while market concerns about inflationary pressure have also increased.

Looking ahead, the dynamics of the crude oil market will continue. Institutions generally believe that price increases triggered by geopolitical conflicts are often short-term and impulsive. As the situation cools down or the market digests the relevant risks, oil prices will return to being driven by supply and demand fundamentals. In the medium to long term, if the United States encourages oil companies to enter Venezuela and expand production capacity, the global crude oil oversupply pressure may further intensify, thereby suppressing oil prices; however, if geopolitical conflicts continue to spread, especially if key shipping lanes such as the Strait of Hormuz are at risk, it is not impossible for Brent crude oil prices to experience a temporary surge. For investors and relevant companies, it is crucial to closely monitor regional developments, manage risks, and be wary of market risks brought about by drastic price fluctuations.

The surge in crude oil prices during the night trading session amidst changing geopolitical dynamics once again highlights the sensitivity and complexity of the energy market. Against the backdrop of a restructuring global geopolitical landscape and accelerated energy transition, the interplay of supply and demand fundamentals and geopolitical risks will become the norm. The future trajectory of oil prices depends not only on the evolution of regional conflicts but also on the pace of global economic recovery, OPEC+ policy adjustments, and the development of alternative energy technologies. This overnight price surge may be just the beginning of the volatile energy market in 2026. Market participants need to find a balance amidst uncertainty and navigate the new market landscape where both risks and opportunities coexist.